CHIEFS Chiefs-Raiders prediction: Las Vegas QB’s odd stat quirk & how KC can take advantage

CHIEFS Chiefs-Raiders prediction: Las Vegas QB’s odd stat quirk & how KC can take advantage

longtime high school offensive coordinator and author of Chiefs book “Unpacking Greatness” — analyze tight end Noah Gray’s standout game against the Carolina Panthers while showing why KC’s coaches appear to be gaining faith in him to take on some Travis Kelce roles. BY JESSE NEWELL The Kansas City Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday afternoon. Here are the game details: Kickoff: 2 p.m. Central on Friday Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City TV: Prime Video or KSHB (Channel 41 in Kansas City) Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita) Betting line: Chiefs by 13. CHIEFS-RAIDERS GAME PREDICTION Let’s get the obvious out of the way: These picks have been ice-cold lately. The Chiefs keep making me think they’re a game away from putting it all together to cover the spread easily against an overmatched opponent; instead, they’ve mostly continued to win while keeping all margins close. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) sits on the ground after being sacked by the Las Vegas Raiders defense in the first quarter Monday, Dec. 25, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Nick Wagner nwagner@kcstar.com So, time to pick a blowout against the Raiders? Maybe. Just listen to Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who was quoted this week saying this about the matchup: “Let’s call a spade a spade … the best team in football against the worst team in football. Let’s change the narrative, right?” Yikes.

Added to the Raiders’ woes is their quarterback situation. Aidan O’Connell will start even though he admits his healing broken thumb is not 100% but “pretty close.” Even when fully healthy, O’Connell is not an appealing option, with an extreme lack of mobility that shouldn’t escape Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo; O’Connell — somehow — has no QB scrambles in his NFL career, according to Next Gen Stats. I honestly don’t know how that’s possible, but Spagnuolo certainly will find fewer headaches scheming against a player he knows will never take off and run. It gets worse for Las Vegas’ offense, though. The team ranks 27th in Pro Football Focus’ “run block” grade and last in “run” — and the Raiders don’t have a healthy backfield group, either. The Chiefs defense has had two bad weeks in a row, but that streak really should end here. Add in that defensive end Charles Omenihu is expected back, and KC has the opportunity to get back to the more dominant form it showed earlier this season. Chiefs defensive end Charles Omenihu celebrates a sack against the Las Vegas Raiders in December. Nick Wagner nwagner@kcstar.com On offense, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the season last week, and KC saw some benefits from a shift toward simplifying things so guys could play faster. There will be some strength-on-strength going on when the Chiefs run; KC’s offensive line is great at clearing holes, while Las Vegas deserves credit for holding its own in that facet.

The Raiders’ best chance at creating havoc in the pass game will be leaning on their best player, edge rusher Maxx Crosby, to make Mahomes’ life difficult. It’s at least worth mentioning, though, that Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor shut down Crosby the last time these two teams played, and Crosby doesn’t move around much, meaning he should be locked on Taylor again. Something else to know: Las Vegas has struggled to cover tight ends and running backs. Not only could that be a problem while going against the Travis Kelce-Noah Gray duo, but it also could be a more significant issue with running back Isiah Pacheco likely making his long-awaited return. Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) is taken down by Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Amik Robertson (21) and linebacker Robert Spillane (41) in the first quarter Monday, Dec. 25, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Nick Wagner nwagner@kcstar.com Thirteen-point spreads are rare in the NFL for good reason; it’s difficult for a team to get up by that many points and also hold that lead late in garbage time. The Chiefs were a prime example of this in their last matchup against the Raiders in Vegas, dominating the second half before failing to cover the spread thanks to a late Vegas TD. I think this one will go differently.

The Chiefs should be plenty motivated from previous times the Raiders have tried to agitate them, and a home game with Omenihu and Pacheco returning seems like it should be an emotional lift for a Chiefs team that’s battled through injuries all season. So yeah, I’m leaning (again) toward the Chiefs finally breaking their season-long trend of keeping every game close. They’re a better team than they’ve shown the last few weeks, and Friday seems like a good opportunity to show that. Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover. Chiefs 33, Raiders 10 Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Panthers 10 (Actual: Chiefs 30-27) ❌ 2024 record vs. spread: 5-5-1 Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 30-21-1 (59%) RELATED STORIES FROM KANSAS CITY STAR CHIEFS Chiefs make flurry of roster moves ahead of Raiders game.