Will Taylor Swift’s Endorsement Actually Affect the Election?

Will Taylor Swift’s Endorsement Actually Affect the Election?
What the research says about celebrity endorsements — and what might make this one different.

Taylor Swift pointing while singing at a recent concert in Lisbon.
Taylor Swift left no doubt about whom she supports, but will it swing any votes?

To some Americans, the biggest news to come out of the presidential debate Tuesday night was not Kamala Harris’s well-received performance. It was Taylor Swift’s endorsement of her minutes after the debate ended.

As celebrity endorsements go, there may not be a bigger one. But could it actually influence the race?

There’s no doubt that Ms. Swift has sway with her legions of fans. There were a total of 405,999 visits to Vote.gov through the link on Ms. Swift’s Instagram story in the 24 hours it was live, far more than the site’s daily average of 30,000 in early September, according to a General Services Administration spokesperson.

But that number alone isn’t particularly useful. It doesn’t tell us whether the visitors were new voters, whether those visits translated into actual registrations or what any new voters will do on Nov. 5.

The reality is that it’s impossible to know exactly how much of a difference — if any — Ms. Swift will make. But here are some ways to think about the question, after looking at research and speaking with college-age Swift fans in Pennsylvania after the debate.

What the research says
There are lots of studies on celebrity endorsements, but the evidence that they matter is mixed. And even if they do matter (they are still sought after and welcomed), the actual effects are very hard to measure.

But researchers have tried.
After Oprah Winfrey endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary, researchers analyzed Oprah Magazine subscription data, book sales and election results to see if Mr. Obama performed better than expected in places where people subscribed to the magazine or where books recommended by Oprah’s Book Club sold particularly well (after controlling for various demographics like race, age, education and more).

They found that he did, and concluded that Ms. Winfrey’s endorsement resulted in an additional one million votes for Mr. Obama in the primary, out of more than 30 million votes cast.

But this example may only take us so far. Researchers at Miami University in Ohio and California State Long Beach found that celebrity endorsements are more likely to matter in primary elections, when voters must choose between two or more relatively similar candidates. In these situations — when voters don’t really have a strong view one way or another — the voice of a trusted celebrity can play an important role.

In general elections, partisanship is what drives voters’ choices; political attitudes often form early in life and are unlikely to be changed by a celebrity endorsement. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received endorsements from Beyoncé, Jay-Z, LeBron James, Kendall Jenner, George Clooney and dozens of others. She still lost.

Could Swift’s endorsement be a special case?
Vice President Harris is not a typical general election candidate, having entered the race less than two months ago. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 28 percent of likely voters said they still needed to learn more about her. Only 9 percent of likely voters felt the same way about Mr. Trump. If celebrity endorsements do have a larger effect when voters don’t have a strong view of the candidate, Ms. Harris could benefit from being relatively unknown.

There’s also the question of who might be most receptive to Ms. Swift’s message.

Although her supporters are more likely to be Democrats (according to a recent YouGov poll) she is popular enough that she has support across the political spectrum. About a third of voters who didn’t support either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris said they liked her. It’s possible some of those voters — a sliver, to be sure — may be swayed by the endorsement.

The fact that partisanship forms in one’s youth could be another argument for a Swift effect. In the YouGov poll, the youngest respondents were the most likely to say they were big Swift fans.

“Young voters don’t trust a lot of institutions, they don’t trust a lot of traditional leaders, they do trust the people that they idolize,” said E. Michele Ramsey, an associate professor of communication arts and sciences at Penn State Berks who teaches a class on Ms. Swift. “Our idols are people that we want to emulate.”

Several students we spoke to reflected this idea.

Buse Onat, 20, a junior at the University of Scranton and an undecided voter, grew up listening to Ms. Swift’s music. She sees her as “a really important figure” in her life. To Ms. Onat, who doesn’t follow politics closely, “having someone else endorse this, kind of shows you: I don’t fully understand this, but this person does.”

Grace Miller, 22, a senior at Kutztown University, grew up in a Republican household. But Ms. Swift’s endorsement has made her more confident in her own favorable opinion of Ms. Harris. If Ms. Swift is “not scared to support someone, it kind of makes it seem like maybe she is the better option,” she said.

In the YouGov poll, 8 percent of respondents said her endorsement would make them more likely to support Ms. Swift’s favored candidate. Most said it wouldn’t.

Lillian Morales, a freshman at Penn State Berks, plans to vote for Ms. Harris and said Ms. Swift’s endorsement was never going to influence her ultimate decision. “It’s really not my business to know who someone is voting for,” she said. “And if she wants to express who she’s voting for, then that’s on her.”

If anything, the Swift fan base was already politically organized before the endorsement. Swifties for Kamala formed the day President Biden dropped out of the race. A single Instagram post may not do much to mobilize Swift voters any more than they already are.

Swifties for Kamala “fully expected this statement to come,” said Erin L. Rossiter, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. “Now that they have this endorsement, it legitimizes what they’re doing so they can be more powerful in their organizing” — even if the groundwork was already laid.

What about enthusiasm?
Does this mean that any impact of the Swift endorsement will be less about changing minds, and more about increasing turnout?

Young voters are typically much less likely to vote than older voters. In a close election, if Ms. Swift’s endorsement persuaded even a small portion of Democratic-aligned potential voters to register and cast a ballot, it could make a difference.

Then again, if it did, we wouldn’t necessarily know it: If Ms. Harris sees a bump in polling data or voter registrations, it will be hard to tell whether it comes from Ms. Swift’s endorsement, a strong debate performance or something else altogether.

The endorsement may also have other, less visible downstream effects. It may help with fund-raising or lead to more favorable media coverage.

Campaigns need excitement, but it’s not always easy to gauge. If it has felt to you that a lot of this year’s election cycle has risen and fallen on vibes, you’re not alone. On Tuesday night, the Harris/Walz campaign rushed to offer Swift-inspired friendship bracelets on its website. They sold out in less than 24 hours.

Ronda Kaysen, a real estate reporter for The Times, writes about the intersection of housing and society. More about Ronda Kaysen

A version of this article appears in print on , Section A, Page 14 of the New York edition with the headline: Will Swift’s Backing Of Harris Influence Votes in Fall Election?. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe